Hiya, Frank. How are the wife and kids?
You know, for you, I'm considering treasury bonds
and utility stocks. Smoke?
In the late '70s, banking wasn't a job
you went into to make large sums of money.
It was a fucking snooze.
How about those Mets?
Filled with losers. Like selling insurance or
And if banking was boring,
then the bond department at the bank was straight-up comatose.
We all know about bonds.
You give them to your snot-nosed kid when he turns 15.
Maybe when he's 30 he makes a hundred bucks.
That is, until Lewis Ranieri came on the scene
at Salomon Brothers.
You might not know who he is, but he changed your life
more than Michael Jordan, the iPod and YouTube put together.
All right, gentlemen! Let's get some money in here!
Let's make some money! What do you say?
You see, Lewis didn't know it yet,
but he had already changed banking forever
with one simple idea.
The mortgage-backed security.
Or private-label MBS.
You've got your average person's mortgage.
Fixed rate, 30 years.
风险小 回报低 对吧
Boring, safe, small payoff, right? But,
when you have thousands of them all bundled together,
suddenly the yield goes up but the risk is still small because,
well, they're mortgages!
And who the hell doesn't pay their mortgage?
What exactly is the credit rating on this bond?
This bond, gentlemen, is AAA-rated.
This is exactly what the
Michigan state pension fund has been looking for.
I'll buy $20 million.
Oh, come on, live a little.
The money came raining down,
and for the first time,
the banker went from the country club to the strip club.
Pretty soon, stocks and savings were almost inconsequential.
They were doing $50, $100, $200 billion
in mortgage bonds and dozens of other securities a year.
And America barely noticed as its number one industry
became boring old banking.
后来有一天 大概三十年后 2008年
And then one day, almost 30 years later, in 2008,
it all came crashing down.
March. Bear Stearns was in a death spiral
and the Fed brokered its sale.
called the worst financial crisis in modern times.
Certainly the largest
financial disaster in decades in this country,
and perhaps the end of an era in American business.
In the end, Lewis Ranieri's mortgage-backed security
mutated into a monstrosity
that collapsed the whole world economy.
And none of the experts or
leaders or talking heads had a clue it was coming.
I'm guessing most of you still don't really know what happened.
Yeah, you got a soundbite you
repeat so you don't sound dumb, but come on.
Our financial institutions are strong.
But there were some who saw it coming.
While the whole world was having a big old party,
a few outsiders and weirdos saw what no one else could.
不是我 我不是怪人 我很酷
Not me. I'm not a weirdo. I'm pretty fucking cool.
But we'll meet again later.
These outsiders saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy.
And they saw it by doing something
the rest of the suckers never thought to do.
During the 1930s,
the housing market collapsed nationwide
by roughly 80%.
I mean, half of all mortgage debt was in default.
And, I mean, there were very
specific identifiers, extremely recognizable.
I mean, for instance,
one of the hallmarks of mania
is the rapid rise
in complexity and the rates of fraud.
And did you know that they're going up?
I've always been
more comfortable alone.
I believe maybe it's because of my glass eye.
I lost the eye in a childhood illness.
It separates me from people.
And did you know that they are going
The highest fraud rates since the 1930s.
Hey, hey, it's okay. It's okay.
No, I didn't know that.
In 1933, the fourth year of the Great Depression.
Let's wash it off and put it back in.
You were playing so great, son.
I even heard the coach say it.
Can we just go home?
Most social interactions are awkward for me and for the person.
Even when I try to compliment someone,
it comes out wrong.
You have a very nice haircut. Did you do it yourself?
不 不 我
No. No, I...
I'm sorry. I'm just...
I'm going on and on.
My wife told me I need to share more.
- That seems healthy. - Yeah.
So do I get the job?
I really think I could help your fund.
Yeah, sure. Go on.
-你叫... -David 太好了
- You're... - David. Great.
I guess I'll go find a desk.
Is there anything you want me to work on for start...
You could let me know later. I could come back.
Did you think it was strange when, um,
the tech bubble burst in 2001
and the housing market in San Jose,
the tech capital of the world,
Wasn't that strange?
不 因为是住房♥ 住房♥很稳固
No, it's housing. Housing is always stable.
Low risk. It's solid.
That's the idea, yeah.