纽约市 8月3日 2007年
你有关注大选初选吗？
You following the primaries?
有啊 希拉里·克♥林♥顿♥不够男人当总统
Yeah. Hillary Clinton's not man enough to be president.
那这个叫奥巴马的家伙呢？
And this Obama guy is?
珍 这是逼耳 我们公♥司♥高级副总裁
Jenn, meet Beau, our senior vice president.
幸会 幸会
Pleasure, pleasure.
生日快乐
Happy Birthday.
其实生日提前了几天 不过还是谢谢你
It's not for a couple more days, but thanks.
我在你大学橄榄球赛的时候就认识你了
I know you from your college-football days.
我在旧金山湾区待过一段时间
I spent some time in the Bay Area.
那时候在斯坦福你的人气很高
You were quite a thing at Stanford.
听着像是我现在成过气明星了
Making me sound like a has-been.
不 我不是这意思
No, that's not what I meant.
- 买♥♥噶 - 我本可以踢大联盟的
- My God. - I could've gone pro.
- 是嘛？ - 足球或是棒球
- Yeah? - Football or baseball.
爱德华给了我更多薪水 所以。。。
Edward offered me more, so...
瓦屋 那是爱疯吗？
Whoa, is that the iPhone?
我也有
I got mine, too.
这是部原型机
This is a prototype.
不是你那种普通款
Not your ordinary iPhone.
- 爱德华送的礼物 - 哦 瓦屋
- Gift from Edward. - Ooh, wow.
“吸血”
怪咖
Dickie.
真意外
What a surprise.
- 不是吧 怪咖博卡 - 这么多年来
- No shit. Dickie Boca. - In all these years,
我从没在咱们的季度酒会上见过你
I don't recall ever seeing you at one of our quarterlies.
- 艾比 - 历史性的一刻
- Abby. - This is history.
听上去是个值得庆祝的理由
Sounds like a reason to celebrate.
我这位同事不喝酒
My colleague doesn't really drink,
但也许在今晚这样一个难得的场合。。。
but maybe tonight on such a rare occasion...
来 让我来吧
Here. Let me.
- 请加入我们 - 艾比
- Please. Join us. - Abby.
敬你 理查德
To you, Richard.
这是理查德 给我下金蛋的金鹅
This is Richard, my golden goose.
嗨 理查德 我叫丽娜
Hi, Richard. I'm Lena.
怪咖 要帮忙吗？
Dickie, need a hand with that?
那会让你变成杰克。。。还是巨人？
And that would make you Jack... or the giant?
《金鹅》
"Golden goose."
不是出自《杰克与魔豆》吗？
Isn't that from "Jack and the Beanstalk"?
这样的话 我就是巨人
Well, in that case, I'm the giant.
你们俩 可不要无事生绯哦
You two, stay out of trouble.
嘿 逼耳 我想跟你说件事
Hey, Beau, I'd like to tell you something.
物以类聚 人以群分
Birds of a feather.
酒保 给我两瓶水晶
Bartender, let me get two bottles of Cristal.
嘿 要来点摇♥头♥丸♥吗？
Hey, want a dab of MDMA?
嘿
Hey.
今晚是什么风把你吹来的？
What brought you out tonight?
小姐
Miss.
欢迎回家 博卡先生
Welcome home, Mr. Boca.
谢特
Shit.
这儿看风景真不错
This is some view.
但装饰布局有点生硬
But a bit stark on the decor.
摆这儿 这样更好
There. That's better.
然后这把椅子呢 应该放那边
And this chair should go over there.
总之 我希望你没事
Sumsum, I hope you're okay.
我的猫今天跑了
My cat ran away today.
她跑外头某个地方了
She's out there somewhere.
我自己倒了杯水
I helped myself to some water.
这算怎么一回事？
What's all this about?
让我猜猜。。。爱德华送的一件礼物？
Let me guess... A gift from Edward?
他很欣赏你
He admires you.
他很欣赏我为他所做的工作
He admires what I do for him.
是啊 下金蛋的鹅
Yeah. Golden goose.
我明白
I got that.
那么你都做些什么工作？
So what is it that you do?
量化交易
Quant trading.
华尔街？
Wall Street?
野蛮运动
Savage sport.
所以 怎么的
So, what,
你们这些人以为自己是斗牛士？
you guys think you're matadors?
不 如果真比作斗牛场 我。。。我只是个围观者
No, if anything, I'm... I'm a spectator.
我觉得你其实比你愿意承认的牛逼多了
I think you're more in the ring than you'd like to admit.
我只是设计量化模型
I just design the models.
所以你是个数学达人
So you're the math guy.
是的 额。。。数学和代码
Yeah, um... math and code.
额 我整合并权衡一个大数据
Well, I synthesize and weigh a very large number
不同类型的证据 以及 使用特定的指标
of different types of evidence, and, using certain metrics,
以求能预料到接下来会发生什么
I hope to anticipate what'll happen next.
那么你预料到接下来会发生什么吗？
So you know what's going to happen next?
没
No.
但我的模型知道
But my models do.
你的模型是怎么知道的？
How'd you get into that?
你真的想知道？
Do you really want to know?
蜜蜂
Bees.
蜜蜂？你是说采蜜的蜜蜂？
Bees? Like honeybees?
我当年的毕业论文是有关蜂群衰竭失调
My thesis was on how bee colony collapse disorder
会削弱加州杏仁产量
would cripple California's almond production.
事实证明 确实如此
Turns out, it did.
这和我现在正研究的很相似
That's similar to what I'm studying.
同酿酒师和葡萄栽培师打交道
Being around winemakers and viticulturists
让我想到了可持续发展
got me thinking about sustainability,
最终让我对水产生了兴趣
which eventually made me take an interest in water.
那是我的注意力
That's my concentration.
- 水 - 那蜜蜂有下文吗？
- Water. - So what happened to the bees?
它们消失了
They vanished.
什么意思 消失了？
What do you mean, vanished?
你是说 死了吗？
Like, died?
不 不 消失了
No. No, vanished.
没有人知道它们去哪了
Like, nobody knows.
你就没想过弄明白吗？
And you didn't try to figure it out?
额 这不是我的模型程序所设定的
Well, that's not what my models are programmed to do.
和。。。和你一样 我也研究生态系统
Like... like you, I-I study ecosystems.
我们的地球有46亿年历史
Our Earth is 4.6 billion years old.
所以我们可以收集推断
So we can gather inferential data
基于之前发生的事情的数据
based on what's happened before.
然后我。。。然后我编写算法
Then I... then I program the algorithms
根据这些发现 它们。。。它们从
based on these findings, and they... they learn
环境中自我学习
from their environments.
因此它们的适应性 它们。。。它们。。。它们。。。
So they're adaptive. They... They... They...
它们可以应用于。。。任何环境
They can be applied to... To most anything.
但它们。。。它们是预测者
But they're... They're predictors.
不是解谜者
They're not mystery solvers.
嗯。。。
Um...
最近我也为酒适应了一次
I recently did one for wine.
可是你不是不喝酒的么
But you don't drink.
不
No.
不喝 我收集
No, I collect.
错了 不是这里
This is the wrong one.
什么？
What?
我拥有整层楼
I own the whole floor.
真的吗
You can't be serious.
是的
Yeah.
欢迎来到我的牢房♥
Welcome to my cell.
这里好冷
Freezing in here.
瓦屋
Wow.
你没开玩笑
You weren't kidding.
爱德华总告诉我 高档红酒能提供类似债券的安全保障
Edward always told me high-end wine offered bond-like security
和类似股票的利润回报
with stock-like returns.
事实证明 他是对的
It turns out, he was right.
这与其他资产类别没有关联
It doesn't correlate to other asset classes.
喜欢什么就挑什么
Pick anything you'd like.